Trump's global trade war may defeat US strategic goals on China

In its first months, US President Donald Trump's administration has moved to deter China from threatening its neighbors, signalling that the US will ramp up its military presence in the Indo-Pacific and offer more support to Taiwan.

But with his global tariffs announcement on Wednesday, Trump may have undercut his own administration's strategy.

While China is one target of the economic measures, others facing levies include allies Japan and South Korea and newer partners, including Vietnam and India. The result, warn analysts, could be an economic moat around the US that ultimately undermines Washington's strategic goals on China.

"The fact that Trump is potentially alienating so many US trade partners at the same time certainly, in my opinion, weakens the overall impact (of his China policy)," said Joe Mazur, geopolitics analyst at policy consultancy Trivium.

"It might also allow China to find common cause with other countries facing down Trump's tariffs, and if not coordinate a response, then at least it will incentivize other countries to mend fences with China."

The White House National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump lambasted doubters while announcing his tariff blitz.

"Never forget, every prediction our opponents made about trade for the last 30 years has been proven totally wrong," he said on Wednesday.

Trump said he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and higher duties on dozens of the country's biggest trading partners, reversing decades of trade liberalisation that have shaped the global order.

China will get hit with 34 percent tariffs, according to the White House, European Union allies will face 20 percent duties, and Taiwan, the democratic island at the center of US-China geopolitical frictions, will be hit by 32 percent tariffs, on top of other tariffs announced by the Trump administration since January.

Scott Kennedy, a China expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the administration's trade policy could hurt the US economy and fray ties with like-minded countries.

"I'm really concerned that we are going to, for the sake of generating jobs in manufacturing, sacrifice our massive advantages in other areas of our economy which are the primary source of our employment, prosperity and international economic and military power," Kennedy said.

"We may end up quite isolated."

RE-ESTABLISHING DETERRENCE

Trump's administration has been vocal about building up US military capacity to counter China.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told a briefing last week in the Philippines on his first trip to the Indo-Pacific that the United States would "shift to this region of the world in a way that is unprecedented," adding that it was committed to re-establishing deterrence "in the face of Communist China's aggression in the region."

Trump's team has also moved to bolster security support for Taiwan, granting the island an early reprieve from the administration's freeze on foreign military financing.

Still, other steps by the administration could erode US influence to Beijing's benefit.

Trump has slashed foreign aid and sought to eliminate US news services, such as Radio Free Asia, which were intended to counter propaganda from American adversaries, particularly China.

His push to acquire Greenland and retake the Panama Canal - though positioned as a way of countering China - has riled allies and raised questions about the US commitment to a rules-based international order.

Global tariffs could backfire, said Lizzi Lee, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. "Add in the Trump administration’s moves to dial back soft power - like cutting foreign aid and scrapping Radio Free Asia - and it’s hard not to see this as a risky play that might play into China’s hands more than intended," she said.

But for China's leaders, Trump's tactics also create risks.

The tariffs - and any broader economic fallout - will be painful for China, already struggling with a slowing economy.

"I don't think (the Chinese) are feeling triumphalist ... tariffs that destabilise the American economy could prove just as bad for China as tariffs on Chinese goods," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics."The biggest risk now is that Trump's wider trade agenda might create a shock to global economic growth, which would be much harder to manage."

XI PLAYING LONG GAME

Despite tough rhetoric from Beijing and prompt retaliation after two rounds of additional tariffs since Trump took office, many analysts agree that Chinese measures so far have been relatively restrained, intending to leave space for dialogue.

"We haven't cut off communication channels, I think our actions are reciprocal but we are not deliberately being provocative," said Sun Chenghao, fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy.

"Trump seems preoccupied with many things outside China. We don't need to put ourselves in his focus of attention. I believe this is not what China wants."

Craig Singleton, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, expects Beijing to avoid a sweeping tariff response but still apply pressure to politically sensitive US exports such as agriculture and industrial machinery and ramp up regulatory actions against US firms.

He said China was also likely to signal to Europe and other traditional US partners that it is still open for business.

"Xi is playing the long game," Singleton said of Chinese President Xi Jinping. "Avoid concessions, absorb the hit, and bet Trump blinks first."