How might Trump win peace in Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said he will be speaking to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine on Monday about stopping the 'bloodbath' in Ukraine. What are the challenges the US president faces in his drive for a peace deal and what could such a deal look like?

SECURITY GUARANTEE

Ukraine, which was subject to a full-scale invasion in 2022 and saw Russia annex Crimea in 2014, says it needs security guarantees from the major powers - primarily the United States.

The problem, say sources involved in the discussions, is that any security guarantee that has teeth would lock the West into a potential future war with Russia - and any security deal without teeth would leave Ukraine exposed.

Under draft proposals for a possible peace settlement seen by Reuters, diplomats spoke of a "robust security guarantee", including possibly an Article 5-like agreement. Article 5 of the NATO treaty commits allies to defend each other in the event of an attack, though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance.

A failed 2022 deal proposed permanent neutrality for Ukraine in return for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, and other nations including Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey, according to a draft seen by Reuters.

Russian negotiators reiterated their demand for neutrality for Ukraine in their first high-level talks since then, in Istanbul on May 16, a Ukrainian source said. The Kremlin said the contents of those talks should be private.

Officials in Kyiv say agreeing to Ukrainian neutrality is a red line they will not cross.

NATO AND NEUTRALITY

Russia has repeatedly said that possible NATO membership for Kyiv was a cause of the war, is unacceptable and that Ukraine must be neutral - with no foreign bases. Zelensky has said it is not for Moscow to decide Ukraine's alliances.

At the 2008 Bucharest summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members. Ukraine in 2019 amended its constitution, committing to the path of full membership of NATO and the European Union.

US envoy General Keith Kellogg has said NATO membership for Ukraine is "off the table". Trump has said past US support for Ukraine's membership of NATO was a cause of the war.

In 2022, Ukraine and Russia discussed permanent neutrality. Russia wanted limits on the Ukrainian military, according to a copy of a potential agreement reviewed by Reuters. Ukraine staunchly opposes the idea of curbs to the size and capabilities of its armed forces.

Russia has said it has no objections to Ukraine seeking EU membership, though some members of the bloc could oppose Kyiv's bid.

TERRITORY

Moscow controls about a fifth of Ukraine and says the territory is now formally part of Russia, a position most countries do not accept.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russian forces control almost all of Luhansk, and more than 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. Russia also controls a sliver of Kharkiv region.

In Putin's most detailed public proposals for peace, outlined in June 2024, he said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entirety of those regions - so even from areas not currently under Russian control. His negotiators restated those demands in the May 16 Istanbul talks, the Ukrainian source said.

According to Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, the negotiators also told their Ukrainian counterparts that Kyiv would need to drop all claims to the four regions and Crimea.

Under a draft peace plan crafted by the Trump administration, the US would de jure recognise Russian control of Crimea, and de facto recognise Russian control of Luhansk and parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Kherson.

Ukraine would regain territory in Kharkiv region, while the US would control and administer Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is currently controlled by Russia.

Kyiv says that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied areas is out of the question and would violate Ukraine's constitution, but that territorial matters could be discussed at talks once a ceasefire is in place.

"The major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it's how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnieper River and get out to the ocean," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart News in an interview published on May 12.

SANCTIONS

Russia wants Western sanctions lifted but is sceptical that they will be lifted soon. Even if the US lifted sanctions, EU and other Western sanctions - such as those imposed by Australia, Britain, Canada and Japan - could remain for years to come. Ukraine wants the sanctions to remain in place.

Reuters has reported that the US government is studying ways it could ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector as part of a broad plan to enable Washington to deliver swift relief if Moscow agrees to end the Ukraine war.

OIL AND GAS

Trump has suggested that Putin, who leads the world's second largest oil exporter, might be more inclined to resolve the Ukraine war following a recent drop in oil prices, though the Kremlin said national interests trump oil prices.

Still, some diplomats have speculated that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia are seeking lower oil prices as part of a bigger grand bargain that involves issues from the Middle East to Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to Europe.

CEASEFIRE

European powers and Ukraine demand Russia agree to a ceasefire before talks but Moscow says a ceasefire will only work once verification issues are sorted out. Kyiv says Moscow is playing for time. Trump says this is a possibility, despite Kremlin denials.

RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE

The reconstruction of Ukraine will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and European powers want to use some of the Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West to help Kyiv.

Russia says that is unacceptable and, according to Kots, the war correspondent, its negotiators in Istanbul said they wanted both sides to agree not to demand any reparations or present bills for war damage.

RUSSIAN SPEAKERS

Moscow's negotiators in Istanbul said Russia wanted Ukraine to agree to implement European standards on the treatment of minorities to protect Russian speakers and ethnic Russians in Ukraine, according to Kots. He said they also demanded that Kyiv end what Moscow calls "nationalist propaganda". Ukraine denies Russian allegations it persecutes Russian speakers.