Bangladesh must navigate a dangerous diplomatic tightrope amid India-Pakistan conflict, warns ex-ambassador Munshi Faiz

As India and Pakistan teeter on the brink of war, top government functionaries in Bangladesh must tread carefully in diplomatic relations—or risk being pulled into the crossfire, warns former ambassador Munshi Faiz Ahmad.

Reflecting on the recent incidents of people being pushed into Bangladesh along the border, he said: "Statements from our side, as well as from theirs, have been varied and potentially provocative. These push-in incidents could lead us into diplomatic traps at any moment, further deteriorating relations."

The veteran diplomat emphasised that no country can replace another in international diplomacy.

"Attempting to improve ties with Pakistan does not mean antagonising India," Munshi Faiz said.

"Assuming that Pakistan’s support negates the need for India would be a dangerous and self-destructive miscalculation,” he continued. “Maintaining healthy and balanced relations with India, grounded in mutual respect and equality, is essential for Bangladesh."

Faiz, former chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), made these remarks during an appearance on bdnews24.com's interview programme "Inside Out".

It was broadcast on bdnews24.com’s Facebook page and YouTube channel on Friday and is available on both these social media platforms.

During the discussion, he analysed a range of regional issues, including Bangladesh’s diplomatic positioning amid the ongoing India-Pakistan hostilities, relations with China and Pakistan, potential humanitarian corridors in Myanmar, and the Rohingya crisis.

WIDER REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Following a devastating attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month, Indian forces retaliated on Wednesday with missile strikes on multiple targets in Pakistan, launching "Operation Sindoor". This military action has brought these two nuclear-armed neighbours dangerously close to war.

Over the three days of conflict, numerous civilians were killed on both sides. Airspaces were closed, flights cancelled, and schools shut down across affected regions. Sporadic border skirmishes and trading of blame continue to heighten tensions.

Faiz warned, “This conflict will severely impact our entire region, and Bangladesh will not escape its consequences. Since the 5th of August, we've struggled to stabilise relations with India. Trade and mobility were already suffering, and now the outbreak of hostilities makes the situation more complicated.”

RISKS FOR BANGLADESH

Highlighting the specific threats Bangladesh faces, he explained: “The immediate disruption will severely impact trade with both India and Pakistan. Trade routes, including those to Sri Lanka and beyond, will be disrupted.

“Given that global commerce is already suffering due to conflicts like Ukraine-Russia, another war in South Asia would significantly compound the difficulties.”

He drew parallels to the global disruption caused by the US-initiated trade wars: “President Trump's tariff wars have already severely disrupted global trade. The current Indo-Pakistani conflict adds yet another layer of turmoil, exacerbating uncertainty.”

POSSIBILITY OF NUCLEAR ESCALATION?

While concerns persist about a possible nuclear escalation, the former top diplomat in Beijing downplayed such fears. He explained, “Both countries indeed possess nuclear weapons, so the threat exists in theory—but realistically, it remains distant. Pakistan maintains a ‘first-strike’ policy, whereas India has pledged a policy of no-first-use.”

He elaborated, “Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is closely monitored and indirectly controlled by the US, which wouldn't easily relinquish that control. Therefore, the risk remains minimal.”

“Countries profit from arms sales during conflicts. However, when nuclear risks loom, even those nations prefer intervention to escalation.”

DECEPTION GAME

Edging towards an all-out war, both Pakistan and India are delivering conflicting narratives about the ongoing conflict, compelling on-watchers to question the veracity of these claims.

In light of this situation, Faiz Ahmad asserted: “We cannot outright dismiss India’s assertion of striking militant hideouts until we have concrete evidence to contradict it. At the same time, we cannot confidently claim that they possess accurate knowledge of the militants’ locations or that their attacks are effectively targeting them. Thus, the truth remains elusive, leaving us unable to confirm the legitimacy of these assertions.”

“We should turn to trustworthy international media, which reveals that both sides provide a mix of truths and falsehoods.”

BANGLADESH ON RIGHT TRACK?

Bangladesh has urged both sides to exercise restraint in the ongoing conflict, a stance that Faiz supports. He stated, “I believe Bangladesh's position thus far is correct. We have no option to lean towards either side; we must maintain a neutral role.”

He, however, also believes that Bangladesh is in no position to act as a mediator to resolve the conflict, a role typically filled by more influential countries.

“If powerful and influential countries, such as the United States, China, Russia, and different European nations, take action, the chances of ending the conflict will improve. These are our allies, and we can continue to urge them to take the initiative so that both sides can step back from the brink of war.”

A PATH TO PEACE

Faiz strongly believes that halting terrorist attacks is crucial for bringing an end to the conflict and achieving lasting peace. That’s why he urges everyone to unite in this effort.

"The justification for igniting this conflict was rooted in terrorist attacks, and we must confront this issue head-on. The global fight against terrorism cannot be waged unilaterally by any single nation. We need to foster dialogue between Pakistan and India to determine who truly poses a threat and how we can collectively combat them. Only through this collaboration can we hope to achieve lasting peace."

In Bangladesh, support for Pakistan and India mirrors the polarisation seen in cricket, but Faiz cautions that perpetuating this divide in a time of war is perilous.

He said, “We must refrain from taking sides in this conflict, for the stakes are too high. While it’s natural to assign varying degrees of blame, casting judgment is not our role. They must navigate their own resolution. Just as we may cheer for our teams in cricket, we cannot afford to become partisans in matters of politics or war."

Instead, Faiz argues that this moment of conflict presents an invaluable opportunity for Bangladesh to turn its focus inward.

He emphasises, “As the world’s attention is drawn to the Pakistan-India conflict, we must seize this moment to address our own pressing issues. This is our chance to spotlight the challenges facing our nation due to our historical struggles."

Faiz urges, “Let’s pay close attention to the plight of our farmers, listen to the voices of our villages, and strengthen our rural economy, which has always been a pillar of our resilience.”

He concludes with a powerful message: "By overcoming our weaknesses and fortifying our internal strength, we can position ourselves for success. This war will come to an end, and when we approach our allies afterwards, they will regard us with newfound respect and significance."

PROVOCATION AT BORDER

In the past three days since the conflict erupted, India’s Border Security Force (BSF) has forcibly pushed numerous individuals into Bangladesh, branding them as “Bangladeshi” at the Moulvibazar, Khagrachhari, and Kurigram borders. Reports suggest that these individuals were blindfolded and transported by plane from Gujarat before being cast across the Bangladesh border.

In response to this alarming situation, Faiz said: "We must fortify our borders and not be distracted by ongoing wars elsewhere. It's essential that we prevent any attempts to push people into our territory. Some may argue that this caught us off guard, and while that may be true, it’s a must that we now prepare ourselves to thwart such incursions. We must double our efforts to address and overcome our internal vulnerabilities."

When questioned if this action constituted a provocation from India, he firmly said: "Absolutely, it is a calculated provocation. This is a test of our resolve. Many may perceive that India is preoccupied with its conflict with Pakistan, but we must recognise that provoking us serves a strategic purpose.

"The truth is that India is confident in its ability to engage on two fronts if needed. Yet, as elections loom, they also seek to bolster their domestic support. The current government stands to gain by inciting conflict on a global scale and fueling divisiveness within its own borders. They have employed these tactics successfully in the past, and it’s clear to us that these manoeuvres are driven by specific political agendas."

NO MORE SOURING RELATIONSHIP

The diplomatic rift between Bangladesh and Pakistan characterised by the Awami League has noticeably narrowed following the political shift brought about by the July Uprising.

Reflecting on this change in direction, he said: “It has come to a halt once again, hasn’t it? Our attempts to enhance relations with Pakistan—an effort made by both sides—have unfortunately stalled. Until the ongoing conflict is resolved, there is little hope of reviving those discussions. Pakistan is currently consumed by their own pressing issues, with new developments occurring daily that prevent them from engaging with us. We find ourselves unable to pursue this dialogue at this time.”

He cautioned against taking sides in the current conflict, asserting, “I do not endorse that shift in strategy. Our relations with India have historically been strong, and they remain so. If there are any flaws, we must address and rectify them. It is crucial that we approach our relationship with India with great care and foresight.”

Given the precarious state of relations, he warned that if we do not tread carefully, Bangladesh could face significant consequences during this conflict. Faiz emphasised that we must navigate these waters wisely to avoid potential dangers.

“There is no justification for assuming that war is not a possibility here. We must proceed with caution. If I were to declare one day that we are the guardians of the Bay of Bengal, it would undoubtedly upset India. If our relationship is already fragile, such statements could only exacerbate tensions.

“When people talk about claiming control over the Seven Sisters or occupying the Chicken Neck, these ideas frequently surface in different media outlets. But let’s be honest: these discussions do nothing to foster better relations between our two countries, do they?

Faiz firmly believes that Bangladesh should avoid the same type of “propaganda” often used by the Indian media against us.

He asserted, “What is our true intention? Our relationship has soured, and we are committed to mending it. Therefore, we must refrain from actions that could further damage our ties. We will choose our words carefully to ensure they do not undermine the chance to strengthen our relationship.”

‘FRIENDS LIKE THIS, WHO NEEDS ENEMIES’

Faiz believes that relations with India are irreplaceable and cannot be substituted by ties with any other nation.

“Just as India stands apart from China, no other country can fill that void. Additionally, over-reliance on the United States can be perilous; they may exploit this dependence without offering genuine benefits. The world is replete with examples of this phenomenon.

“The most critical point is that while they preach about democracy and human rights to us, they conveniently overlook these values in their dealings with nations like Egypt or Saudi Arabia.”

Faiz pointed out the lengthy history of the United States’ involvement in military interventions since the Korean War, emphasising that in many instances, the US has failed to achieve its goals. Yet the reality is more nuanced.

“Some claim that the US does not engage to win or lose; rather, they engage to sell weapons. They instigate conflicts, profit from arms sales, and then exit the stage. Instead of resolving issues, they often intensify them.

“This is precisely why we must exercise caution when forging alliances with the United States. As the saying goes, ‘With friends like the United States, who needs enemies?’ We must remain vigilant and discerning in our diplomatic relationships.”

[Writing in English by Syed Mahmud Onindo and Sheikh Fariha Bristy]