War drums in South Asia: How Bangladesh should navigate India-Pakistan conflict

Concerns are rising over regional stability in South Asia amid the looming threat of all-out war between nuclear-armed arch-rivals India and Pakistan. While Bangladesh is not directly involved in the conflict, its exposure to the escalating tensions remains significant, with fears of indirect repercussions.

The interim government in Dhaka has called for de-escalation through dialogue, urging both countries to refrain from plunging into full-scale war despite the intense atmosphere of vengeance that has marked recent developments.

In line with this stance, international relations and security experts agree that the destabilisation of regional stability would have far-reaching consequences for all South Asian nations. They are unanimous in their opinion that Bangladesh should refrain from taking any actions that could be interpreted as favouring one side of the conflict.

Although there are prospects for both countries backing down given the risks of full-scale war, experts caution that the situation remains highly complex and could worsen.

In retaliation for a terrorist attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam, India launched missile strikes early on Wednesday on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan responded with artillery fire on Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Pakistan has claimed that at least 31 people were killed in India’s attack, while Indian police reported at least 15 deaths in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

The Pakistan military also claimed to have shot down at least six Indian Air Force jets, while Reuters reported three Indian planes being "destroyed" in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Indian government has not yet commented on these claims.

As the drums of war beat louder, the United Nations and other nations have expressed deep concern over the rising tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

To maintain regional stability in South Asia, the interim government in Bangladesh has urged both India and Pakistan to remain calm and exercise restraint.

A statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued on Wednesday said, “The Government of Bangladesh is closely observing the evolving situation in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh expresses its deep concern over the situation, and urges both the countries to remain calm, show restraint and refrain from taking any steps that could further aggravate the situation."

The Ministry's statement further noted, "In the spirit of regional peace, prosperity and stability, Bangladesh remains hopeful that tensions will be defused through diplomatic endeavours, and that peace will ultimately prevail for the benefits of the peoples in the region."

Meanwhile, Inspector General of Police Baharul Alam has instructed district police chiefs (SPs) along the border to stay vigilant to prevent the infiltration of terrorists.

In light of the war-like situation between the two South Asian neighbours, the National Citizen Party (NCP) has called for increased border surveillance, fearing that fugitive leaders and activists of the Awami League may exploit the situation to create unrest.

IMPACT ON BANGLADESH

The impact of India's overnight attack on Pakistan rapidly reverberated across Bangladesh, particularly hitting the stock market by morning. As fears of war intensified, investors hastily began selling shares at lower prices at the start of trading, causing the market index to plummet.

By day's end, the Dhaka Stock Exchange's (DSE) main index had dropped nearly 150 points—a steep decline in just a single trading session.

Experts believe that if the two neighbouring nations engage in full-scale war, Bangladesh could experience immediate and lasting repercussions across its economy, particularly affecting business, trade, and investments.

On the day of the military confrontation, India's Border Security Force (BSF) forcibly pushed 125 individuals into Bangladesh across the border, spreading them across three districts. They have been detained by Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) for verification.

Meanwhile, aviation disruptions were immediate.

On the same day, three flights scheduled to land in Dhaka altered their routes due to the escalating tensions. A Turkish Airlines flight from Turkey diverted to Oman’s Muscat airport to avoid Pakistani airspace. Two flights from Kuwait operated by Jazeera Airways were rerouted—one landed in Dubai, while the other returned to Kuwait.

Security and international relations analysts say that any conflict between two large neighbouring countries inevitably spills over, disrupting regional trade, communication, and economic stability. Due to the cultural closeness between South Asian nations, the impact is likely to be stronger.

Security analyst Shafqat Munir noted, "There might not be a direct impact on us, but whenever there is conflict or war in this region, it will inevitably have an effect on us. How will this impact us?

“First, the regional peace and stability will be disrupted due to the conflict between two major nations. This will then disrupt economic stability as well."

Munir pointed out the increased costs of airline operations due to flight rerouting caused by the aerial risks and the broader implications of airport closures in India.

Munir emphasised that with over 4,000 kilometres of border shared with India, the conflict between these two large South Asian nations inherently affects not only Bangladesh but the entire region.

Former ambassador to China Munshi Faiz Ahmad said Bangladesh wishes for India and Pakistan to de-escalate and avoid war. Given the ongoing global tension, the current situation is already unstable, and the conflict would only worsen things further, destabilising the region.

"Business and trade will suffer, as will transportation and communication. Cultural exchanges among South Asian countries, already fragile, would face even greater disruption. The impact would undoubtedly extend across the entire region, including Bangladesh," he said.

WHAT BANGLADESH SHOULD DO

Analysts are advising that Bangladesh should closely monitor the situation while maintaining a safe distance from any potential conflict between India and Pakistan.

They have also cautioned the interim government against making any “irresponsible” public statements during this sensitive period.

Shafqat, a fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), said: “The government should closely observe the situation, call for peaceful resolution by both sides, and hope or work towards an immediate solution. Beyond that, there isn’t much to do.”

“We must monitor and review the developments very closely, because this is not just a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan,” he added. “It would not be wise for us to make any irresponsible remarks. We have recently witnessed some unguarded statements, which only fuelled tension.

“We hope such comments will not be repeated in the future.”

“Our expectation is that peace and stability will prevail in the region, and that cooperation among all countries will return soon,” he said.

Munshi, former BIISS chairman, advised that Bangladesh should “avoid provoking” India at a time when the country may be heading into conflict with Pakistan.

He said: “Just because India is getting entangled in a war with Pakistan doesn’t mean we should provoke them.

“We must remain focused on the objective of maintaining good relations with India and guiding it onto the right path.

“That way, India may better understand our problems and refrain from mistreating us. If we don’t treat them properly, how can we expect fair treatment in return?”

Amid international preoccupation with the India-Pakistan conflict, Munshi suggested Bangladesh should focus on improving its own internal situation.

Referring to the post-Aug 5 political shift, he said relations with India had “deteriorated” significantly since then.

“Bangladesh doesn’t seem to be engaging constructively with those it claims to want good relations with. Given the worsening external environment, our priority should be fixing internal issues.”

The analyst emphasised the need for reform, credible elections, and national consensus. “If we concentrate on those efforts and move seriously from an interim to a permanent government, then we may be able to achieve something worthwhile.”

IS AN ALL-OUT WAR IMMINENT?

Despite hints from both India and Pakistan that they might step back from the brink after India's major offensive on the first day and Pakistan's retaliatory statements, analysts are not ruling out the possibility of further escalation.

Analysing the midnight events on Tuesday, former ambassador Munshi Faiz said India had launched several large-scale attacks on Pakistani territory.

Before this, there had already been a series of attacks, counterattacks, and skirmishes along the border.

Munshi said, “[On Wednesday], India carried out a broader assault. They’ve claimed they did not target any Pakistani military bases or installations, but rather suspected terrorist facilities.

“They said it was a ‘necessary lesson’ they delivered,” he noted.

He pointed out that while India appears to be expressing a sense of accomplishment, Pakistan is also displaying similar sentiments by claiming to have downed Indian warplanes.

“On Pakistan’s side, they are saying they intercepted and brought down several Indian aircraft. So both countries now have something to tell their people—one side saying they’ve taught a lesson, the other claiming they’ve given a fitting reply,” said the former BIPSS chief.

Suggesting that both countries may still pull back without engaging in full-scale war, he said: “It wouldn’t surprise me if they de-escalate from here.

“But if they believe that stopping water flow, halting trade, or closing airspace isn’t enough, and some more military action is required, then we may see a few more incidents before they back off.”

On the issue of escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, BIPSS fellow Shafqat said: “Both sides are fully aware of the risk of escalation. So we hope both will try to avoid letting this spiral into a larger conflict.”

“Still, in such situations, it's difficult to forecast exactly when or how escalation might occur,” he added.

Referring to official statements coming from the Indian side, the analyst said: “There will likely be more comments from both countries, with efforts to prevent further escalation.

“Our collective hope is that the situation will be de-escalated soon.”

He also highlighted the role of international discussions and mediation efforts, particularly those involving Middle Eastern countries and the United Nations.

“Since this is a conflict between two major states, it has significant international implications,” Shafqat said. “That’s why global media is paying such close attention.

“We can hope the situation doesn’t worsen, but it’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions,” he added.

PUSH-IN, BORDER SECURITY

Amid the face-off between India and Pakistan, India’s Border Security Force (BSF) has reportedly pushed around 125 people into Bangladesh across three border points.

National Security Advisor Khalilur Rahman has criticised the move, saying such informal push-ins are “inappropriate”.

Asked about the government’s position in light of the developments, Khalilur said: “We are receiving these reports as well. We are reviewing each case individually.

“Our position is clear: we will accept only those who are verifiably our citizens, through legal means. This method of push-in is not acceptable.”

When asked if Bangladesh would raise the issue formally with New Delhi, Khalilur, who is also the chief advisor’s top aide, said: “We are already trying to communicate with the Indian government on the matter.”

Shafqat, the security analyst, clarified that the issue of push-ins should not be conflated with the current India-Pakistan conflict.

“The bilateral problems between India and Bangladesh should not be linked to the war. That’s a separate matter and should proceed on its own course,” he said.

Former BIISS chief Munshi described the push-ins as “a reflection of the deteriorating relations between the two countries”.

“There’s currently no opportunity to improve ties with India. They are preoccupied with war. And now we’re hearing that some people have been pushed into Bangladesh.

“If our borders are unstable, we must consider what steps can be taken to secure them.”

Asked further about the push-ins, he questioned: “Have we sent them back? Are we in a position to take action?

“If we could return them, the government should hold flag meetings with the BSF and send them back. But the government is unable to do so.”

Munshi added, “If relations with India remain poor, I believe these incidents will continue occasionally, and we won’t be able to do anything about them. That’s why we need to establish good relations with India.

“Seeking a positive relationship does not mean subservience.”

In response another question about the push-in, he said: "This indicates that our border security is weak. We are failing to protect our borders effectively.

“We may have made bold statements in the past, but when incidents occur, we cannot do anything."

Shafqat advised greater attention to border security. “We must always be vigilant about our border security. Surveillance must be strengthened.

“Given that a military conflict is unfolding in the region, we cannot afford to take the security of our borders or our country lightly.

“Even if this isn’t war, it is a wartime situation. We need 24-hour monitoring, high-level government attention, and constant awareness to ensure we don’t get dragged into this conflict,” he added.